My goodness, McCain.

EVENT

Is it too soon to say that I'm already getting nervous about the upcoming election?

For almost four years both houses of Congress have been dominated by Republicans. We've had a conservative Republican president who has now made two (in one case, explicitly conservative) appointments to a previously split Supreme Court. This is a dilemma for me personally for a number of reasons. The issues closest to my heart, that is, the environment, health care, civil rights, and responsible economics have all been consistently neglected by the GOP for over twenty years. But there's even more reason to be nervous in the moment's climate:

These are not our parents' or grandparents' Republicans. We're not talking about a Rockefeller or a Goldwater with policies that might be a little austere for our liberal hearts but which we might begrudgingly, or even openly, admire for their economy. Todya's Republicans by-and-large have more in common with McCarthy. That's right, I went there. Today's Republicans are mostly household Republicans, by which I mean their policies don't place much stock in a right many Republicans used to live and swear by, described by Supreme Court justice William O. Douglas as "the right to be left alone." Perhaps they do with regard to some taxes... but in general, these Republicans are happy to sit in your phones, at your doctors, and in your bedroom. They'll go to the big communal bank and take out exorbitant loans on foreign-policy get-rich-quick schemes and pass along the interest to you and your kids.

Yes, I'm very scared of John McCain right now.

...

That was an intentionally loaded statement. "Why John McCain?" is the question I'm baiting. "Isn't he one of the few Rockefeller or Goldwater Republicans left?"

I'm starting to think not.

One thing many centist democrats and moderates may have missed is that in recent years the whole political dialogue has shifted. Yes, yes, it's largely 9/11-driven, but if you look at the discourse these days we're not talking about a step to the right strictly in terms of defense and security. The political conversation has moved in that direction in virtually every issue; one state has approved gay-marriage, but dozens are lining up to oppose it, and a federal amendment (though one that is perhaps unlikely to pass) might make state decisions moot. Tax cuts are being given to corporations (many already posting record-profits) in a way that is, well, precedented I supposed, but nevertheless in the midst of an unsurprisingly expensive war, in a very unprecedented way. The lack of accountability over the war itself has manifested in Bush's approval ratings, but at the end of the day the ratings only count if they stick in an election. That hasn't happened.

I'm not trying to paint a grim view of the future or even of the present. The tide is changing, and we'll quite possibly see a watershed transference of Congressional seats this November.

Still:

I think it's important to think, as Doc Brown would say, "fourth-dimensionally." In a saner world, McCain would've won the primaries in 2000. He very likely would've been elected and probably would've been pretty liberal as far as Republicans go. Who knows; he may have even been the best Republican president since Eisenhower.

Electing him in 2008, however, I expect him to drive from a much more defensive, reluctant, and conservative angle.

Tom's response to a McCain interview on gay rights, for example, suggests the sort of political dexterity I'm talking about. When asked if he supports gay rights, McCain answers "yes, sir!" He bases this, in the following conversation, on his choice to vote against the Federal Marriage Amendment because the decision is, in his mind, best left to the states. Arizona will vote on the issue itself, McCain says, and he hopes Arizona votes in support of "the sanctity of marriage." Tom's analysis goes onto astutely observe that McCain cosponsored the Arizona bill which would not only prohibit marriage but civil unions. Since "civil unions" are as close as anything to a comfortable middle ground between liberals and conservatives on this issue, a prudent observer should ask:

1) Where, in this kaleidoscope of views, does he exhibit any support (explicit or implicit) of gay rights? (Even Log Cabin Republicans would have a hard time with this one).
2) Where does he exercise any preference at all, except for state rights over federal prerogative?
3) How does he evade the fact that an Arizona bill that can only be overturned by a federal court (as opposed to a later Arizona legislature) undermines state rights?

and, perhaps most importantly,

4) Why are these all policies and decisions that we'd expect of a conservative lawmaker, and not a moderate?

To put it a little differently, consider this:
McCain recently spoke at both Jerry Falwell's Liberty University and the New School, using the same prepared remarks for both (he was both booed and protested at the latter). This is transparently an effort to reach out to both extremes. McCain is putting out a bid for the presidency. He knows that, as a Republican, he cannot win a primary if conservatives find a plausible alternative more likely to further their agenda. He also knows that, as a Republican, he cannot win the election if conservative voters stay home. He can see that there is great reservation about Democratic frontrunners, and he is banking on his reputation as a moderate among swing voters while solidifying his hold on the Right by backing policies they support.

Democrats, whoever they select, will face a similar dilemma. Since McCain has such grand across-the-aisle appeal, the Democratic candidate will almost certainly run conservative than usual, playing up fiscal conservatism and meaty defense spending. Dividing issues will probably be the tax cuts, civil liberties, and as always, the war in Iraq.

The bottom line is this:

Moderate liberals and swing voters should think very carefully before throwing their support behind a McCain presidency.

By voting Democrat, they might find themselves under a centrist president with an emphasis on fiscal restraint.

By voting for McCain, on the other hand, they might find themselves under a "moderate" Republican with fashionable rhetoric, yet who is beholden to a consituency that could fairly described as "staunchily conservative."

END OF POST.