A Friendly Wager

EVENT

From this New York times article:

http://www.nytimes.com/reuters/news/news-security-pakistan-osama.html

Pakistani media Sunday quoted Cofer Black, State Department coordinator for counter-terrorism, as saying that the United States and its allies have put the al Qaeda leader on the defensive, increasing chances of his capture soon.

But Pakistani Information Minister Sheikh Rashid Ahmed said Black's remarks were a "political statement."

"We don't have any information about that," Ahmed told Reuters by telephone from Saudi Arabia where he is accompanying Prime Minister Shaukat Aziz on an official visit.

Sam and I have placed a friendly wager as to what day, if any, Osama bin Laden will turn up. He says October 26th, which I admit, is as good a choice as any I can think of. I went with Halloween, for more whimsical reasons. If one of us wins, the other must buy him a six-pack of quality beer. I'd opt for Guinness or Harps my self. Sam'll go for something German I wager.

Now I realize what we propose is statistically unlikely. After all, they've been looking for bin Laden for about three years now. How likely is it that he turn up the week prior to the U.S. national election? The odds in that time would be, statistically, about 1%.

So I don't necessarily expect it.

But nor would it surprise.

And anyway... there's nothing to lose with a bet like this.

Any other predictions?

~ Connor